Since launching his third run for the White House about four months ago, Donald Trump’s campaign has often seemed frustrating and unfocused. The former president is juggling distractions in the form of mounting legal troubles and the threat of impeachment. After many of his candidates lost in the 2022 midterm elections, it was widely proclaimed that his grip on the Republican Party was weakening.
But those factors created a set of strengths that in many ways are now becoming apparent.
why we write this
Since he launched his bid for the White House last year, it has been widely proclaimed that Donald Trump’s grip on the Republican Party was weakening. But that creates a set of strengths that in many ways are now becoming evident.
As the contours of the 2024 primary battle begin to come into focus, Trump is already benefiting from some of the same circumstances that helped him in 2016. A large, unwieldy Republican field dividing the anti-Trump vote. Opponents too scared to attack you directly. Above all, a set of die-hard fans who provide him with a solid and unwavering foothold.
At the same time, it is becoming clear that Trump is bringing an entirely different level of political and professional experience to this primary process than he did in 2016. He is courting key officials for behind-the-scenes endorsements and support. And he’s wasting no time building an apparatus on the ground in early voting states that could give him a significant advantage over his Republican rivals.
“It would be foolish to underestimate Donald Trump,” says Luke Martz, an Iowa-based Republican strategist.
Braving Iowa’s cold March wind, Patty Havill stands in the middle of a meandering row of red MAGA hats and flag-themed costumes, waiting to see the man she thinks can still save America from all its troubles. Other Republican presidential hopefuls have been in town recently, including, on Friday, the governor of Florida. Ron DeSantis, but Ms. Havill is determined in her devotion to her. For her, it’s either Donald Trump or nobody.
“Our country is in chaos. We need you to fix it,” says the retired nurse. “Trump is the only one.”
Since launching his third run for the White House about four months ago, Donald Trump’s campaign, from the outside, has often seemed frustrating and unfocused. The former president is juggling distractions in the form of mounting legal troubles and the very real possibility of criminal prosecution. After many of his handpicked candidates lost in the 2022 midterm elections, it was widely proclaimed that his grip on the Republican Party was weakening, with even his former vice president apparently preparing to take on him.
why we write this
Since he launched his bid for the White House last year, it has been widely proclaimed that Donald Trump’s grip on the Republican Party was weakening. But that creates a set of strengths that in many ways are now becoming evident.
But those factors created a set of strengths that in many ways are now becoming apparent.
As the contours of the 2024 primary battle begin to come into focus, Trump is already benefiting from some of the same circumstances that helped him in 2016. A large, unwieldy Republican field dividing the anti-Trump vote. Opponents too scared to attack you directly. Above all, a set of die-hard fans like Ms. Havill, who provide her with a solid and unwavering foothold.
At the same time, it is becoming clear that Trump is bringing an entirely different level of political and professional experience to this primary process than he did in 2016. He is courting key officials for behind-the-scenes endorsements and support. And he’s wasting no time building an apparatus on the ground with experienced hands in early voting states like Iowa that could give him a significant advantage over his Republican rivals, some of whom, like Gov. DeSantis, haven’t even formally entered the polls. the race.
“It would be foolish to underestimate Donald Trump,” says Luke Martz, an Iowa-based Republican strategist.
Some Trump supporters began lining up more than 10 hours before Monday’s event in Davenport, an eastern Iowa city on the Mississippi River where Illinois-born Ronald Reagan began his career as a radio sportscaster on the 1930s.
“This is not a rally. We’ll be back soon for a rally,” Trump said, midway through his two-hour speech to a packed theater, on his first visit to the state where the 2024 run to the White House for Republicans begins. As he spoke, volunteers collected names, emails and addresses from the audience and handed out voter registration forms.
“I said, ‘Why aren’t we doing one at an airport where we can have 50,000 people?’ They said, ‘Sir, it’s too cold.’ That was a good decision,” she said, cracking a smile. “Because it’s so cold outside.”
Earlier, Trump made a brief unannounced stop at a local restaurant where he posed for photos with diners, the kind of retail politicking Iowans expect. In the theater, he answered questions at the back of the audience after joking that the evening should end on a high note, like a concert that ends with a great encore.
In 2016, Mr. Trump finished second in the Iowa caucuses behind Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, after a campaign that relied on celebrity and media exposure but fell short on organization. (Trump relented, but later claimed Sen. Cruz “stole” the election.) This time, the former president seems determined not to make the same mistake. Trump has hired Marshall Moreau, who helped Republican candidate Brenna Bird defeat a 10-term Democratic attorney general in November, to lead his efforts in Iowa.
Other hires include state legislator Bobby Kaufmann, who appeared onstage with the former president in Davenport. His father, Jeff Kaufmann, a Trump ally, is the chair of the Iowa Republican Party, leading some Republicans to complain about a potential conflict of interest in a party-run caucus.
Also on Team Trump: Eric Branstad, whose father, Terry Branstad, is a popular former governor of Iowa who served as Trump’s ambassador to China. Eric Branstad helped run Trump’s state campaigns in 2016 and 2020 and this time he is a senior adviser.
“Having a strong organizational base in Iowa is really important,” says Doug Gross, a Republican activist here who has criticized the former president. To win here, campaigns must be able to turn pledges of support into actual votes on the one night in January, usually a dark and frigid night, that matters.
Trump’s core of committed supporters, even if they are a minority, are a huge asset in a caucus, Gross says. “You have to be a pretty committed supporter to go to a caucus and have your voice heard,” he says. “That gives [Mr. Trump] a natural advantage.” But having a campaign that understands the complicated mechanics and rules of caucuses, and can maneuver strategically, can increase that advantage dramatically.
Other Republicans say the pressure will be on Trump to win — and win convincingly — in Iowa, unlike in 2016, when his campaign benefited from low expectations. In fact, even a narrow victory for Trump could be seen as a disappointment, boosting a second-place finisher.
“There’s a big hole for someone to walk through,” says David Kochel, an Iowa-based strategist and former adviser to Mitt Romney who helped run Jeb Bush’s 2016 campaign.
Trump’s appearance in Iowa came on the heels of a highly-anticipated visit from his supposed rival, Governor DeSantis. Mr. DeSantis held two events Friday that were ostensibly to promote his new book, but were seen as a marker for 2024. He met with Republican state lawmakers after his stop in Des Moines, where he joined the Iowa governor. Kim Reynolds, who also introduced Mr. Trump at his event.
While early national polls often reflect little more than name recognition, DeSantis’ upward trajectory in states like Iowa seems clear. And his rise in popularity comes at Trump’s expense, sharpening the rivalry between the two men and setting the stage for a potentially protracted battle.
An Iowa poll released Friday showed a decline in support for Trump, with just 47% of Iowa Republicans saying they would “definitely” vote for him if he is the GOP nominee, a significant decline from 69% in June 2021 (another 27%” I’d probably vote for him). The former president’s favorability rating among Iowa Republicans has also dropped more than 10 points and is now at 80%, just slightly higher than DeSantis’ at 75%. (That said, 1 in 5 respondents said they didn’t already know enough about Mr. DeSantis to rate him.)
“There is a subset that will be with President Trump no matter what,” says Brett Barker, the Story County Republican Party chairman. But “I think Iowans in general are open-minded.”
At a recent event in Iowa for Arizona’s defeated gubernatorial candidate, Kari Lake, the former Gov. Branstad told the Monitor that she would remain neutral in 2024. (In 2016, she warned Iowans not to back Sen. Cruz over Texas’ opposition to ethanol subsidies.) But he expressed doubts about Trump’s chances this time around because, he said, the former president has “too much baggage.”
Judging by the responses from Trump supporters, social and cultural grievances will drive the race for the Republican nomination in 2024. The biggest and most sustained applause came for Trump’s calls to ban transgender athletes from women’s sports, stop teaching race theory in schools and “breaking down” the federal Department of Education.
Trump seemed to take note. “Look at the hand you get for that,” he said, after the crowd roared their approval of him. “Bigger than ‘we’re going to be energy independent,’” he said, referring to one of his usual lines of applause.
By contrast, Trump’s indirect remarks at Florida Governor “Ron DeSanctimonious” received a more muted response. (Until now, DeSantis has resisted attacking the former president directly.) He said DeSantis had voted in Congress to cut farm subsidies and cut Social Security and Medicare benefits, both of which Trump said he would protect. .
The president expounded at length on his administration’s record of waging trade wars with China, Mexico and Europe, and defending Iowa farmers, including ethanol producers. “I fought for Iowa ethanol like no president in history,” he said.
Outside the theater, some attendees said they would support DeSantis as a presidential candidate, should he win the nomination instead of Trump. Others suggested that the 44-year-old governor of Florida should wait his turn.
“I think DeSantis would make a good vice president, but Florida needs him right now,” says Roy Nelson, an Iowa retiree who traveled from Nevada for the event. He is a young man. Hey, you have time. This will probably be Trump’s last chance.”
